Live aurora forecast

Northern lights in Rishiri Island tonight

Northern Hokkaido, Japan · 39° magnetic latitude · Kp 7-8 threshold

Aurora visibility · Rishiri Island
1/9
Unlikely tonight

Kp 1 is well below the Kp 7-8 threshold needed for aurora to be visible from Rishiri Island.

QuietStormExtreme
Threshold
Kp 7-8
Magnetic latitude
~39°N
Bz ↓ south
- nT
Solar wind
- km/s
Density
- p/cm³
Cloud
-
Conditions right now: - Kp + Bz + solar wind + cloud + moon

Updated: 20 Jul, 12:58 UTC

7-day outlook for Rishiri Island

Today
20 Jul
1
Quiet
Tomorrow
21 Jul
3
Quiet
Wed
22 Jul
3
Quiet
Thu
23 Jul
3
Quiet
Fri
24 Jul
3
Quiet
Sat
25 Jul
3
Quiet
Sun
26 Jul
3
Quiet

Based on CME arrival predictions from NASA DONKI. Arrival times ±6 hours.

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What Kp is needed here?

Rishiri Island sits at a magnetic latitude of approximately 39°N. The Kp index - a global measure of geomagnetic activity on a scale from 0 (quiet) to 9 (extreme storm), updated every 3 hours - needs to reach Kp 7-8 before the auroral oval expands far enough south to be visible from here.

At Kp 7-8, visibility is possible from Rishiri Island but skies need to be clear and dark. Cloud cover and light pollution remain the main obstacles even when Kp is high enough.

Plan your viewing

Best dark sky sites near Rishiri Island

Light pollution is the biggest obstacle after cloud cover. These sites give you the best dark northern horizon within reach.

Otatomari Pond

Get directions ↗
Bortle Class 2 - Excellent dark sky 5 km from Oshidomari port - approximately 10 minute drive

Otatomari Pond is a small lake on the south coast of Rishiri Island, directly below the Rishiri-Fuji volcano (1,721 m). The pond reflects the volcano's conical summit in calm conditions - in daylight this is one of the most photographed views in Hokkaido. At night, with aurora active, the combination of the volcano silhouette and the sky reflection gives a composition available nowhere else in Japan. Bortle Class 2. The car park is lit but the far shore of the pond gives a dark position. The water is accessible from the main island road year-round.

Senhoshi Cape

Get directions ↗
Bortle Class 1-2 - Exceptional dark sky 10 km from Oshidomari port - approximately 18 minute drive

Senhoshi Cape on the western coast faces the Japan Sea with no land visible to the west or north. Bortle Class 1-2. The cliff-top positions above the cape give an elevated view over open ocean. Rishiri-Fuji rises behind to the east as a dark silhouette. At Kp 7-8, aurora can appear low above the western horizon over the sea. The cape road is accessible by car; the final section to the headland may require walking on foot in winter conditions. Cold and exposed - wind from the northwest is common in winter and significantly increases wind chill.

Kutsugata Cape north shore

Get directions ↗
Bortle Class 2 - Excellent dark sky 8 km from Oshidomari port - approximately 14 minute drive

The north shore of Kutsugata Cape faces across the La Perouse Strait in the direction of Sakhalin Island. Bortle Class 2. The low coastal terrain gives an unobstructed northern horizon - the most important direction for aurora at this latitude. Rishiri-Fuji is visible behind and to the south, providing a landscape reference. The harbour at Kutsugata is small and has minimal lighting. Combined with Senhoshi Cape on the west coast, this gives two distinct aurora photography positions within 20 minutes of each other on the island road.

When to go

Best time to see the northern lights in Rishiri Island

At 39°N magnetic latitude, Rishiri Island sits at the lower end of regular aurora territory. Only the deep mid-winter months of November through January offer nights dark enough for aurora to be visible, and only then when a significant geomagnetic storm pushes the auroral oval this far south.

Activity peaks around the September and March equinoxes, when Earth's magnetic field geometry is most favourable for coupling with the solar wind. Events during these two windows tend to produce the strongest displays of the year for observers at Rishiri Island's latitude.

Outside November through January, twilight is too bright for aurora viewing even during significant storms. The season is short, but the equinox months on either side of winter can extend it slightly when storm timing aligns.

Up to 8 locations

Unlikely
Kp 1 need Kp 7-8
Checking darkness…
Wakkanai

Japan

Unlikely
Kp 1 need Kp 7-8
Checking darkness…
Rebun Island

Japan

Unlikely
Kp 1 need Kp 7-8
Checking darkness…
The odds

How often does the aurora appear in Rishiri Island?

Average nights per month the Kp reached Rishiri Island's threshold of 7+, from 15 years of geomagnetic data (2010–2024).

0.1Jan
0.1Feb
0.1Mar
0.1Apr
0.1May
0.1Jun
0.1Jul
0.1Aug
0.1Sep
0.1Oct
0.1Nov
0.1Dec

Counts the Kp 7+ threshold only - cloud cover and local darkness are not included.
Kp data: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, CC BY 4.0

Make it happen

Plan your trip to Rishiri Island

Based on 15 years of geomagnetic data (2010–2024)

1st
January
0.1
avg aurora nights
Requires an extended stay
2nd
February
0.1
avg aurora nights
Requires an extended stay
3rd
March
0.1
avg aurora nights
Requires an extended stay

Best window

The January to March window averages 0 aurora nights - the strongest consecutive stretch of the year.

How long to stay

Aurora at this latitude requires patience - allow as many nights as possible during January.

Questions

Common questions about aurora in Rishiri Island

What makes Rishiri Island distinctive for aurora?
Rishiri-Fuji, the near-perfectly conical dormant volcano at 1,721 m that dominates the island, is the defining photographic element. Aurora over the open Japan Sea to the west, with the volcano rising against the eastern sky, creates a foreground that does not exist anywhere else in Japan. The island sits at about 45°N geographic latitude but only around 39° geomagnetic latitude - the latitude measured from Earth's magnetic poles, which is what actually decides where the aurora reaches. That is Japan's highest accessible position alongside Rebun Island to the north, giving a Kp 7-8 threshold. Sky darkness at Bortle Class 1-2 from the cape and coast positions completes the combination.
What Kp is needed for aurora at Rishiri Island?
Kp 7-8 from the dark coastal positions, a G3 storm or stronger. The Kp index measures global geomagnetic activity on a scale from 0 (quiet) to 9 (extreme storm), updated every 3 hours. At ~39° geomagnetic latitude, only a major storm pushes the auroral oval far enough south to show as a red glow low on the northern horizon. Kp is a 3-hour global average, so the threshold being met means a night is worth checking, not a guarantee. Storms at this level happen only a handful of times a year even in the current solar maximum, and the glow is usually clearer on a long-exposure photograph than to the eye. It is not a nightly event.
How do I get to Rishiri Island?
Ferry from Wakkanai port on the Hokkaido mainland to Oshidomari, the main port on Rishiri Island. The ferry takes approximately 1 hour 40 minutes to 2 hours depending on the service. Heartland Ferry operates this route; in winter the timetable is reduced. A second, shorter crossing (45 minutes) connects Rishiri to Rebun Island for combined itineraries. Wakkanai is accessible by train from Sapporo (5-6 hours) or via Memanbetsu Airport near Abashiri. Most island visitors stay 1-2 nights given the ferry schedule.
How does Rishiri compare to Rebun Island for aurora?
The geomagnetic latitude and Kp threshold are identical at both islands - both sit at ~39° geomagnetic latitude with a Kp 7-8 requirement. The difference is landscape. Rebun is a flat flower island with no prominent mountain - the best aurora position is Sukoton Cape at the northern tip, with a pure sea horizon. Rishiri has Rishiri-Fuji as a central element in every view - the volcano backdrop is the foreground advantage. Otatomari Pond gives a reflection composition that Rebun cannot match. The choice between islands depends on whether you want a sea horizon (Rebun) or a volcano backdrop (Rishiri).
How do I stay informed about aurora conditions at Rishiri?
Set up a push notification at /northern-lights-alert with a Kp 7 threshold before you travel. Island visits require ferry booking in advance and at least 2 nights to allow for weather contingency. Having the alert configured means you will know within minutes when a qualifying storm begins - enough time to drive to Senhoshi Cape or Kutsugata. In winter, check the Heartland Ferry schedule for last crossing times, as the ferry does not run 24 hours and sea conditions can cause cancellations.
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