Live aurora forecast

Northern lights in Toyako tonight

Southwestern Hokkaido, Japan · 36° magnetic latitude · Kp 8-9 threshold

Aurora visibility · Toyako
1/9
Unlikely tonight

Kp 1 is well below the Kp 8-9 threshold needed for aurora to be visible from Toyako.

QuietStormExtreme
Threshold
Kp 8-9
Magnetic latitude
~36°N
Bz ↓ south
- nT
Solar wind
- km/s
Density
- p/cm³
Cloud
-
Conditions right now: - Kp + Bz + solar wind + cloud + moon

Updated: 20 Jul, 12:57 UTC

7-day outlook for Toyako

Today
20 Jul
1
Quiet
Tomorrow
21 Jul
3
Quiet
Wed
22 Jul
3
Quiet
Thu
23 Jul
3
Quiet
Fri
24 Jul
3
Quiet
Sat
25 Jul
3
Quiet
Sun
26 Jul
3
Quiet

Based on CME arrival predictions from NASA DONKI. Arrival times ±6 hours.

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What Kp is needed here?

Toyako sits at a magnetic latitude of approximately 36°N. The Kp index - a global measure of geomagnetic activity on a scale from 0 (quiet) to 9 (extreme storm), updated every 3 hours - needs to reach Kp 8-9 before the auroral oval expands far enough south to be visible from here.

At Kp 8-9, visibility is possible from Toyako but skies need to be clear and dark. Cloud cover and light pollution remain the main obstacles even when Kp is high enough.

Plan your viewing

Best dark sky sites near Toyako

Light pollution is the biggest obstacle after cloud cover. These sites give you the best dark northern horizon within reach.

Lake Toya north shore

Get directions ↗
Bortle Class 3-4 - Rural sky North shore hotels - approximately 5 km from Toyako Onsen via the lakeside road

Lake Toya occupies a 9 km caldera lake in southwestern Hokkaido. The north shore faces south across the caldera toward the hot spring resort town of Toyako Onsen - this direction has moderate light glow. The more useful position is the eastern and western shore road where the view across the open caldera looks over dark water toward the caldera rim at 550-700 m elevation. Bortle Class 3-4 from lakeside positions away from the onsen town. During a Kp 8-9 storm, red aurora appears low above the caldera rim to the north. Nakajima Island, the small island in the centre of the lake, creates a distinctive silhouette in the caldera foreground.

Usu volcano approach road

Get directions ↗
Bortle Class 3 - Rural sky 8 km south of Toyako Onsen - approximately 12 minute drive

Mount Usu (737 m) last erupted in 2000 - the approach road on its eastern flank gives elevated positions above the valley light glow and a clear western and northern horizon. Bortle Class 3 from the upper car parks on the approach road. The ropeway to the summit offers access during operating hours (check seasonal timetable) to above 400 m where the horizon opens. During a Kp 8-9 storm, red aurora appears low in the north and northwest from the elevated positions. The Usu approach gives the darkest accessible position in the immediate Toyako area without a significant hike.

Sobetsu area north of Lake Toya

Get directions ↗
Bortle Class 3 - Rural sky 8 km north of Toyako Onsen - approximately 12 minute drive

Sobetsu is an agricultural town north of Lake Toya on the outer caldera flank. The open farmland here gives a clear northern horizon without the lake's surrounding rim blocking the sky. Bortle Class 3. Positioned 8 km from the onsen town, the Sobetsu area faces north over the coastal plain toward the Uchiura Bay direction. During a Kp 8-9 storm, red aurora appears low above the flat agricultural horizon to the north. The approach from the onsen hotel district takes under 15 minutes by car. A practical position for those staying in Toyako who want to get away from the resort lighting without a long drive.

When to go

Best time to see the northern lights in Toyako

At 36°N magnetic latitude, Toyako sits at the lower end of regular aurora territory. Only the deep mid-winter months of November through January offer nights dark enough for aurora to be visible, and only then when a significant geomagnetic storm pushes the auroral oval this far south.

Activity peaks around the September and March equinoxes, when Earth's magnetic field geometry is most favourable for coupling with the solar wind. Events during these two windows tend to produce the strongest displays of the year for observers at Toyako's latitude.

Outside November through January, twilight is too bright for aurora viewing even during significant storms. The season is short, but the equinox months on either side of winter can extend it slightly when storm timing aligns.

Up to 8 locations

Toyako

Japan

Unlikely
Kp 1 need Kp 8-9
Checking darkness…
Niseko

Japan

Unlikely
Kp 1 need Kp 8-9
Checking darkness…
Hakodate

Japan

Unlikely
Kp 1 need Kp 8-9
Checking darkness…
The odds

How often does the aurora appear in Toyako?

Average nights per month the Kp reached Toyako's threshold of 8+, from 15 years of geomagnetic data (2010–2024).

0Jan
0Feb
0Mar
0Apr
0May
0Jun
0Jul
0Aug
0Sep
0Oct
0Nov
0Dec

Counts the Kp 8+ threshold only - cloud cover and local darkness are not included.
Kp data: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, CC BY 4.0

Make it happen

Plan your trip to Toyako

Aurora is rare at this latitude - conditions require Kp 8+. No month reaches a meaningful average.

Questions

Common questions about aurora in Toyako

Can you see the northern lights from Lake Toya?
Only during a major geomagnetic storm. Lake Toya sits at about 43°N geographic latitude but only around 36° geomagnetic latitude - the latitude measured from Earth's magnetic poles, which is what actually decides where the aurora reaches. That gap is why the northern lights here need a major storm, not the routine activity that lights up Norway or Alaska. The Kp index - a global measure of geomagnetic activity on a scale from 0 (quiet) to 9 (extreme storm), updated every 3 hours - needs to reach 8-9, a G4-G5 storm. The G5 storm of May 2024 (Kp 9) produced aurora photographs from southwestern Hokkaido. What appears is red aurora low on the northern horizon, often easier to capture on a long-exposure camera than to see by eye. This is not reliable overhead aurora, and a sighting here is an exceptional bonus for a Toya visit, not a planned activity.
What makes Lake Toya distinctive for aurora photography?
The volcanic caldera. Lake Toya occupies a circular depression 9 km across, with Nakajima Island in the centre and the caldera rim at 550-700 m visible on the far shore. During a Kp 8-9 storm, the red aurora that reaches this far south sits low on the northern horizon, above the caldera rim and reflected in the lake. The composition is unlike the coastal and wetland settings of northern Hokkaido. The hot spring hotels on the north and east shores give overnight access without driving far. The Usu volcano immediately south adds a second volcanic element - last erupted 2000, visibly scarred. The landscape makes Toya worth the detour if a major storm is forecast.
How does Lake Toya compare to Niseko for aurora?
Both are in southwestern Hokkaido at around 36° geomagnetic latitude with the same Kp 8-9 threshold. Niseko is a ski resort - the Annupuri upper runs give an elevated dark position at 1,000 m with a western and northern horizon. Lake Toya is at low altitude (84 m above sea level) with the caldera lake foreground. The sky darkness is similar at both locations - Bortle Class 3-4. Niseko has the elevation advantage; Toya has the lake and caldera. For photographers, Toya's lake reflection is the stronger composition for the low northern aurora. For aurora probability, elevation at Niseko may reduce cloud cover on valley inversion nights, but both depend on the same rare major storms.
How do I get to Lake Toya?
Lake Toya is 90 km southwest of Sapporo by car (approximately 1 hour 15 minutes via the Dō-Ō Expressway). By train, take the Hokkaido Shinkansen to Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto and change to the Muroran Line to Tōya Station (the service from Sapporo requires a connection and takes around 1 hour 30 minutes). Toyako Onsen is 12 km from Tōya Station by bus or taxi. From Hakodate, the drive is 100 km northeast (about 1 hour 20 minutes). A hire car is useful for reaching the Usu approach and Sobetsu area at night.
How do I track aurora conditions at Lake Toya?
Set up a push notification at /northern-lights-alert with a Kp 8-9 threshold. Kp is a 3-hour global average, so the threshold being reached means it is worth checking the northern horizon, not that aurora is guaranteed at any one spot. Advance notice from the 7-day forecast is useful, but the storm strength can only be confirmed 1-2 days ahead. The notification system will alert you the moment Kp 8 is reached. The onsen hotels at Toyako are well-positioned for a quick drive to the dark lake shore or Sobetsu - a 15-minute window from alert to position is realistic. Some hotels monitor aurora forecasts and notify guests; ask at check-in.
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