Live aurora forecast

Northern lights in Thunder Bay tonight

Northwestern Ontario, Canada · 57° magnetic latitude · Kp 3–4 threshold

Aurora visibility · Thunder Bay
1/9
Unlikely tonight

Kp 1 is well below the Kp 3–4 threshold needed for aurora to be visible from Thunder Bay.

QuietStormExtreme
Threshold
Kp 3–4
Magnetic latitude
~57°N
Bz ↓ south
- nT
Solar wind
- km/s
Density
- p/cm³
Cloud
-
Conditions right now: - Kp + Bz + solar wind + cloud + moon

Updated: 29 Jun, 21:40 UTC

7-day outlook for Thunder Bay

Today
29 Jun
1
Quiet
Tomorrow
30 Jun
3
Possible
Wed
1 Jul
3
Possible
Thu
2 Jul
3
Possible
Fri
3 Jul
3
Possible
Sat
4 Jul
3
Possible
Sun
5 Jul
3
Possible

Based on CME arrival predictions from NASA DONKI. Arrival times ±6 hours.

auroratonight.space

What Kp is needed here?

Thunder Bay sits at a magnetic latitude of approximately 57°N. The Kp index - a global measure of geomagnetic activity on a scale from 0 (quiet) to 9 (extreme storm), updated every 3 hours - needs to reach Kp 3–4 before the auroral oval expands far enough south to be visible from here.

At Kp 3–4, visibility is possible from Thunder Bay but skies need to be clear and dark. Cloud cover and light pollution remain the main obstacles even when Kp is high enough.

Plan your viewing

Best dark sky sites near Thunder Bay

Light pollution is the biggest obstacle after cloud cover. These sites give you the best dark northern horizon within reach.

Sleeping Giant Provincial Park

Get directions ↗
Bortle Class 3 - Rural sky, good dark sky 50 km from Thunder Bay - approximately 45 minute drive

A 25 km long peninsula jutting south into Lake Superior, 45 minutes from Thunder Bay on Highway 11/17. The peninsula is dark in all directions - open lake water on three sides and boreal forest interior. The northern tip gives a broad north-facing lake horizon. The park has maintained campsite access year-round.

Boulevard Lake Park

Get directions ↗
Bortle Class 6 - Suburban sky 5 km from Thunder Bay - approximately 10 minute drive

A north-facing city park on Boulevard Lake within Thunder Bay's city limits, surprisingly dark for its location because the lake faces north away from the main urban core. The waterfront gives an unobstructed northern horizon across the lake. Useful for quick checks on nights when a Kp 4-5 event is in progress and driving further out is not practical.

Kakabeka Falls Provincial Park

Get directions ↗
Bortle Class 3 - Rural sky, good dark sky 30 km from Thunder Bay - approximately 30 minute drive

30 minutes west of Thunder Bay on the Trans-Canada Highway, with a river gorge that blocks residual city light from the east. The falls access trails give open sky above the canyon. The park operates year-round with maintained winter roads.

When to go

Best time to see the northern lights in Thunder Bay

Thunder Bay's aurora season runs from late September through to March, when nights are long enough for truly dark skies. The equinox months, September and March, bring a natural boost in geomagnetic activity, making them statistically the best of the season. Summer months bring too much twilight for aurora to be visible at this latitude.

Activity peaks around the September and March equinoxes, when Earth's magnetic field geometry is most favourable for coupling with the solar wind. Events during these two windows tend to produce the strongest displays of the year for observers at Thunder Bay's latitude.

April through August brings persistent astronomical twilight that washes out aurora completely. Even strong events (Kp 6+) remain invisible during this period because the sky never gets dark enough.

Up to 8 locations

Thunder Bay

Canada

Unlikely
Kp 1 need Kp 3-4
Checking darkness…
Sudbury

Canada

Unlikely
Kp 1 need Kp 5
Checking darkness…
Winnipeg

Canada

Unlikely
Kp 1 need Kp 3
Checking darkness…
The odds

How often does the aurora appear in Thunder Bay?

Average nights per month the Kp reached Thunder Bay's threshold of 3+, from 15 years of geomagnetic data (2010–2024).

10.2Jan
11.2Feb
13.6Mar
12.4Apr
10.7May
9Jun
10.1Jul
12.3Aug
13.2Sep
12.8Oct
10.3Nov
9.3Dec

Counts the Kp 3+ threshold only - cloud cover and local darkness are not included.
Kp data: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, CC BY 4.0

Make it happen

Plan your trip to Thunder Bay

Based on 15 years of geomagnetic data (2010–2024)

1st
March
13.6
avg aurora nights
Stay 3+ nights for 80% chance
2nd
September
13.2
avg aurora nights
Stay 3+ nights for 80% chance
3rd
October
12.8
avg aurora nights
Stay 4+ nights for 80% chance

Best window

The August to October window averages 38 aurora nights - the strongest consecutive stretch of the year.

How long to stay

For your best chance in March, plan at least 3 nights.

From the community

Aurora photographs from Thunder Bay

Real photos sourced from Wikimedia Commons.

Aurora over Thunder Bay Aurora over Thunder Bay
Aurora over Thunder Bay Aurora over Thunder Bay
Aurora over Thunder Bay Aurora over Thunder Bay
Aurora over Thunder Bay Aurora over Thunder Bay
Aurora over Thunder Bay Aurora over Thunder Bay
Aurora over Thunder Bay Aurora over Thunder Bay
Questions

Common questions about aurora in Thunder Bay

Can you see the northern lights from Thunder Bay?
Yes, and frequently. Thunder Bay sits at 57°N magnetic latitude, which means the Kp index - a global measure of geomagnetic activity on a scale from 0 (quiet) to 9 (extreme storm), updated every 3 hours - only needs to reach 3-4 for aurora to be visible from dark sites like Sleeping Giant Provincial Park. During solar maximum, that threshold is crossed dozens of nights per year. The lake horizon is a genuine asset: open water to the north means no light sources to wash out low-elevation aurora arcs.
How does Thunder Bay compare to Sudbury for aurora?
Both are strong Ontario aurora cities with similar Kp thresholds. Sudbury sits at 58°N magnetic latitude - marginally higher than Thunder Bay's 57°N - so its threshold is technically a fraction lower. In practice the difference is negligible on any given night. Thunder Bay has one advantage Sudbury lacks: Lake Superior's dark northern water horizon, which gives an unobstructed view of low aurora that an inland site cannot match.
How often is aurora visible from Thunder Bay?
During solar maximum, the Kp 3-4 threshold is met on dozens of nights per year. The continental climate of northwestern Ontario gives fewer cloudy nights than eastern coastal cities. Autumn and spring offer the clearest skies and are also the geomagnetically most active seasons, making September and March the statistically strongest months for combining clear skies with active aurora.
What are the best spots around Thunder Bay for aurora?
Sleeping Giant Provincial Park is the priority dark site - 45 minutes from the city on Highway 11/17, with open lake water giving a north-facing horizon that is hard to beat in the region. Boulevard Lake Park is the practical city-limits option for nights when a Kp 4-5 event develops quickly and a longer drive is not feasible. Kakabeka Falls Provincial Park, 30 minutes west on the Trans-Canada, is worth considering on nights with light to moderate activity.
When is aurora season in Thunder Bay?
August to April. The sky becomes dark enough for aurora viewing from mid-August as astronomical twilight returns. October and March are the strongest months statistically - the equinoxes favour geomagnetic activity and both months tend to have reasonable clear-sky rates in northwestern Ontario. The continental climate means winter months under Arctic high pressure can also deliver long clear nights, though temperatures regularly drop below -20°C.
Photograph the aurora

Recommended gear

Tested picks for capturing the aurora on long, cold nights.

As an Amazon Associate, Aurora Tonight earns from qualifying purchases. Affiliate links never influence the forecast or which gear is recommended.

Aurora Tonight

Aurora Tonight

Add to your home screen for instant aurora alerts

Add to your home screen

Tap then Add to Home Screen for instant aurora alerts