What is solar maximum?
The Sun is not a stable object. It cycles through periods of low and high magnetic activity on an approximately 11-year timescale. At solar minimum, the Sun's surface is relatively calm - sunspot counts are low, solar flares are infrequent. At solar maximum, the magnetic field becomes complex and tangled, sunspot counts rise, and energetic events become common.
Aurora follows directly from this cycle. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) - large eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun's corona - are both more frequent at maximum. When a CME reaches Earth two to four days after the eruption, it interacts with Earth's magnetic field, compressing the magnetosphere on the sunward side and stretching it away on the night side. Charged particles funnel down the magnetic field lines into the polar atmosphere, colliding with oxygen and nitrogen atoms to produce the visible light we call aurora. The strength of this process is measured by the Kp index - a global measure of geomagnetic activity on a scale from 0 (quiet) to 9 (extreme storm). More on the full mechanism is in the guide to what causes the northern lights.
At solar maximum, Kp 5+ events - strong enough to produce aurora across Scotland, Scandinavia, and northern Canada - occur far more often than at minimum. Extreme events at Kp 7-9 become plausible once or twice a year. That is the practical difference for aurora watchers.
Solar Cycle 25: a record cycle
Solar Cycle 25 began in December 2019 and was originally predicted to reach a peak of around 115 sunspots - a modest cycle by historical standards. That forecast proved significantly wrong. On 30 January 2026, NOAA announced the cycle had produced a monthly smoothed sunspot number of at least 299, the highest in over 20 years. The full announcement is on the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
NASA and NOAA officially declared solar maximum for Cycle 25 in October 2024. That declaration - based on the smoothed sunspot count confirming the cycle had passed its peak - is the authoritative timestamp in the timeline. A predicted peak of 115 versus an actual peak of 299 means Cycle 25 performed at nearly three times the forecast strength, surpassing the relatively quiet Cycle 24 by a wide margin.
As of May 2026, the peak is confirmed behind us and the cycle is in its declining phase. Activity will decrease gradually toward solar minimum around 2030.
Live conditions: The current aurora forecast shows today's Kp index, incoming solar events, and real-time solar wind data.
What solar maximum means in practice
For observers at high latitudes - northern Norway, Iceland, Finnish Lapland, northern Canada - solar maximum means aurora is visible on more nights per season and the displays are more structured and active. Instead of seeing aurora on 60-70% of clear nights, you might see it on 80-90%. Intensity is higher on average.
The difference is most striking at mid-latitudes. Scotland and Ireland now see aurora regularly - 30-80 nights per year from dark sites in the north - rather than occasionally. Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark see displays multiple times per year that would have been rare at minimum. G3-G5 storms (Kp 7-9) push aurora across England, northern France, Poland, and the northern United States.
At solar minimum, a Kp 5 event might happen 10-15 times per year. At maximum, it can reach 50-70 times. As Cycle 25 declines, that frequency will decrease - but 2026 remains significantly above minimum levels. The Kp threshold for any given location does not change; what changes is how often those threshold events occur.
The May 2024 G5 storm - a case study
Between 8-10 May 2024, a large active region on the Sun produced a series of X-class flares and multiple CMEs in quick succession. The CMEs arrived at Earth on 10 May and began driving a geomagnetic storm that reached G5 - the maximum on the NOAA scale - within hours. The Kp index hit 9. The storm lasted through 11 May before gradually subsiding.
Aurora was photographed from latitudes that rarely or never see it: Mexico City, the Canary Islands, Mallorca, central Spain, and the Florida Keys. In the continental United States, displays reached Texas, Alabama, and California. Across the UK, Ireland, France, Germany, and Poland, aurora was visible to the naked eye - not just detectable by camera but genuinely bright overhead. In Scotland and northern England, the display included moving rays, arcs, and corona structure.
As the cycle declines, G4-G5 events become less likely than at the height of maximum. They remain possible - the decline is gradual - but the frequency will decrease through 2026 and beyond. Monitoring the 7-day outlook and setting up aurora alerts remains the most reliable way to catch them when they arrive.
The closing window
Solar maximum is confirmed behind us. The October 2024 NASA/NOAA declaration and the January 2026 NOAA announcement both establish this clearly. What follows is a multi-year decline toward solar minimum around 2030, during which storm frequency and intensity will fall gradually each year.
2026 is likely the last year in which storm frequency approaches what 2024 and 2025 delivered. From 2027, the probability of significant geomagnetic events per season will begin to drop noticeably. By 2030, conditions will resemble 2019-2020 - a period of low geomagnetic activity and infrequent aurora outside the high Arctic.
Solar Cycle 26 is expected to peak around 2036. Whether it will match Cycle 25's record strength is unknown; prediction accuracy at that range is limited. The next comparable aurora window is roughly a decade away.
Best destinations while activity remains elevated
Solar maximum benefits every aurora destination, but some benefit more than others. High-latitude locations - northern Norway, Iceland, Finnish Lapland, northern Canada - are already inside or close to the auroral oval. At maximum, their already-frequent aurora becomes more intense and more active. These destinations remain strong while the cycle's decline is still early.
Mid-latitude destinations see the largest proportional improvement. Scotland in particular is worth considering while conditions remain elevated: it has always had the latitude for aurora, but at solar minimum the required storm levels are infrequent enough to make a dedicated trip a significant gamble. Through 2026, storm frequency is still well above minimum - a week in the Highlands from a dark site carries a realistic chance of aurora on multiple nights.
Germany, the Netherlands, and Ireland at 51-54°N need Kp 5-6 to see aurora. These events occur dozens of times per year at maximum. For travellers in those countries who want to see aurora without going to Scandinavia, 2026 represents the last accessible window in this cycle. See the best time to see the northern lights guide for the month-by-month breakdown.
Should you go in 2026?
The peak is behind us, but the decline is gradual. Activity in 2026 remains well above what any pre-2023 year offered, and the current phase still produces significant geomagnetic storms. The choice is not between good conditions and poor ones - it is between the early decline of a record cycle and waiting until the mid-2030s for the next maximum.
2026 is likely the last year with storm frequency close to 2024-2025 levels. From 2027, the probability of reaching aurora thresholds in Scotland, Germany, and Ireland will begin to fall. By 2030, conditions will drop to minimum levels.
For this season's conditions, check the 7-day outlook and set up aurora alerts to catch the next significant storm when it arrives.
How to monitor activity
The 7-day aurora outlook on this site shows Kp predictions, solar wind data, and incoming CME alerts for the next week. Each location page shows the current Kp and forecast alongside real-time cloud cover data - the two variables that determine whether aurora is visible from your specific location tonight.
NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center issues geomagnetic storm watches when a significant CME is detected heading toward Earth. These watches typically appear 1-3 days before the storm arrives. Setting up aurora alerts - either from this site or directly from NOAA - means you will not miss a major event because you were not watching the forecast.
Live solar wind data is available on each location page and updates continuously. The key parameter is the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field: when Bz turns strongly southward (negative values below -10 nT), the solar wind couples effectively with Earth's magnetic field and aurora intensifies. A sustained southward Bz of -20 nT or below during a CME arrival is a reliable indicator of G3+ conditions within the following hours.
