Solar maximum 2025-2026 - best years for northern lights in a decade

What is solar maximum?

The Sun is not a stable object. It cycles through periods of low and high magnetic activity on an approximately 11-year timescale. At solar minimum, the Sun's surface is relatively calm - sunspot counts are low, solar flares are infrequent. At solar maximum, the magnetic field becomes complex and tangled, sunspot counts rise, and energetic events become common.

The aurora connection is direct. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) - large eruptions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun's corona - are both more frequent at maximum. When a CME reaches Earth two to four days after the eruption, it interacts with Earth's magnetic field, compressing the magnetosphere on the sunward side and stretching it away on the night side. Charged particles funnel down the magnetic field lines into the polar atmosphere, colliding with oxygen and nitrogen atoms to produce the visible light we call aurora. The strength of this process is measured by the Kp index, which runs from 0 (quiet) to 9 (extreme storm). Learn more about how this works in the guide to what causes the northern lights.

At solar maximum, Kp 5+ events - strong enough to produce aurora across Scotland, Scandinavia, and northern Canada - occur far more often than at minimum. Extreme events at Kp 7-9 become plausible once or twice a year. That is the practical difference for aurora watchers.

Where we are in Solar Cycle 25

Solar Cycle 25 - the current cycle, numbered from a reference point in the 18th century - peaked in late 2024. That makes 2025 and 2026 the most aurora-active period since the Solar Cycle 24 maximum around 2012-2014. Cycle 25 has been stronger than early forecasts predicted when it began around 2019.

The evidence arrived dramatically on 10-11 May 2024. A sequence of X-class solar flares and a large CME cluster produced a G5 geomagnetic storm - the strongest in 20 years, registering Kp 9 on the scale. Aurora reached Spain, the Canary Islands, Mexico, Texas, and Florida. Across the UK, Ireland, and northern Europe, displays were visible to the naked eye for several hours. The storm proved that Cycle 25 had surpassed the relatively quiet Cycle 24 and was performing at a level not seen since the early 2000s.

Since May 2024, elevated activity has continued. Multiple G3-G4 storms have produced aurora across Scotland, Ireland, Germany, and the Netherlands in months that would have been marginal at solar minimum. The baseline Kp on nominally quiet nights is measurably higher than it was in 2019-2020.

What solar maximum means in practice

For observers at high latitudes - Norway, Iceland, Finnish Lapland, northern Canada - solar maximum means aurora is visible on more nights per season and the displays are more structured and active. Instead of seeing aurora on 60-70% of clear nights, you might see it on 80-90%. Intensity is higher on average.

The difference is most striking at mid-latitudes. Scotland and Ireland now see aurora regularly - 30-80 nights per year from dark sites in the north - rather than occasionally. Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark see displays multiple times per year that would have been rare at minimum. G3-G5 storms (Kp 7-9) push aurora across England, northern France, Poland, and the northern United States.

The Kp threshold for any given location does not change - the latitude determines what storm strength reaches you. What changes is how often those threshold events occur. At solar minimum, a Kp 5 event might happen 10-15 times per year. At maximum, it can happen 50-70 times. For Edinburgh at Kp 4, that means far more opportunities per season.

The May 2024 G5 storm - a case study

Between 8-10 May 2024, a large active region on the Sun produced a series of X-class flares and multiple CMEs in quick succession. The CMEs arrived at Earth on 10 May and began driving a geomagnetic storm that reached G5 - the maximum on the NOAA scale - within hours. The Kp index hit 9. The storm lasted through 11 May before gradually subsiding.

Aurora was photographed from latitudes that rarely or never see it: Mexico City, the Canary Islands, Mallorca, central Spain, and the Florida Keys. In the continental United States, displays reached Texas, Alabama, and California. Across the UK, Ireland, France, Germany, and Poland, aurora was visible to the naked eye - not just detectable by camera but genuinely bright overhead. In Scotland and northern England, the display included moving rays, arcs, and corona structure - the most active aurora most observers there had seen in their lifetimes.

A repeat G4-G5 event is consistent with conditions near solar maximum. One or two per year is plausible during 2025-2026. These storms cannot be predicted more than a few days in advance - they depend on specific active regions on the Sun and the alignment of CME trajectories with Earth. The 7-day outlook and aurora alerts are the tools for catching them.

How long does solar maximum last?

The peak of a solar cycle is not a single point. It is a broad plateau lasting roughly 12-18 months, during which sunspot counts fluctuate around their maximum values. Solar Cycle 25 peaked in late 2024, placing 2025 squarely in the maximum window. 2026 will likely still be near peak or in the early decline phase.

Elevated activity persists for several years either side of the peak. The decline toward solar minimum is gradual, not sudden. 2027 will be less active than 2025-2026 but still significantly more active than 2019-2020 at the previous minimum. Solar minimum for Cycle 25 is expected around 2030. From 2030 to approximately 2036, activity will be low - fewer storms, less frequent aurora at mid-latitudes, and less intense displays overall.

The next solar maximum - Solar Cycle 26 - is expected around 2036. Whether it will be as strong as Cycle 25 is genuinely unknown; solar cycle strength prediction remains imprecise. The current window is the best we have had in over a decade, and the next comparable one is approximately ten years away.

Best destinations during solar maximum

Solar maximum benefits every aurora destination, but some benefit more than others. High-latitude locations - northern Norway, Iceland, Finnish Lapland, northern Canada - are already inside or very close to the auroral oval. At maximum, their already-frequent aurora becomes more intense and more active. These destinations are outstanding right now.

Mid-latitude destinations see the largest proportional improvement. Scotland in particular is worth considering during this period: it has always had the latitude for aurora, but at solar minimum the required storm levels were infrequent enough to make a dedicated trip risky. At maximum, the probability per trip is much better. Scotland in September or March, from a dark site in the Highlands or Northern Isles, now offers a realistic chance of aurora on multiple nights of a week-long stay.

Germany, the Netherlands, and Ireland at 51-54°N need Kp 5-6 to see aurora. These events now occur dozens of times per year at maximum. For travellers in those countries who want to see aurora without travelling to Scandinavia, the current period represents the most accessible window in a decade. See the best time to see the northern lights guide for the month-by-month breakdown.

Should you go now?

Yes. The answer is straightforward.

2025 and 2026 are both near-peak years. Aurora frequency is high, storm intensity is elevated, and mid-latitude displays that would have been exceptional five years ago are now recurring events. The May 2024 G5 storm gave a preview of what extreme events look like at this point in the cycle - and the conditions that produced it persist.

Activity will decline from 2027 onward. By 2030, we reach solar minimum - the quietest aurora period in the cycle. From roughly 2028, opportunities for aurora in Scotland, Germany, and Ireland will drop sharply. The next maximum, around 2036, is a decade away.

If you have been thinking about a northern lights trip, the choice is between going during the current maximum or waiting until the mid-2030s. For this aurora season's conditions, check the 7-day outlook and set up aurora alerts to catch the next significant storm when it arrives.

How to monitor activity

The 7-day aurora outlook on this site shows Kp predictions, solar wind data, and incoming CME alerts for the next week. Each location page shows the current Kp and forecast alongside real-time cloud cover data - the two variables that determine whether aurora is visible from your specific location tonight.

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center issues geomagnetic storm watches when a significant CME is detected heading toward Earth. These watches typically appear 1-3 days before the storm arrives. Setting up aurora alerts - either from this site or directly from NOAA - means you will not miss a major event because you were not watching the forecast.

Live solar wind data is available on each location page and updates continuously. The key parameter is the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field: when Bz turns strongly southward (negative values below -10 nT), the solar wind couples effectively with Earth's magnetic field and aurora intensifies. A sustained southward Bz of -20 nT or below during a CME arrival is a reliable indicator of G3+ conditions within the following hours.