Live aurora forecast

Northern lights in Pärnu tonight

Pärnu County, Estonia · 59° magnetic latitude · Kp 3–4 threshold

Aurora visibility · Pärnu
6/9
Good chance tonight

Kp 6 exceeds the visibility threshold for Pärnu. Head out if skies are clear and you have a dark site.

QuietStormExtreme
Threshold
Kp 3–4
Magnetic latitude
~59°N
Bz ↓ south
- nT
Solar wind
- km/s
Density
- p/cm³
Cloud
-
Conditions right now: - Kp + Bz + solar wind + cloud + moon

Updated: 6 Jul, 06:02 UTC

7-day outlook for Pärnu

Today
6 Jul
6
Good chance
Tomorrow
7 Jul
3
Possible
Wed
8 Jul
3
Possible
Thu
9 Jul
3
Possible
Fri
10 Jul
3
Possible
Sat
11 Jul
3
Possible
Sun
12 Jul
3
Possible

Based on CME arrival predictions from NASA DONKI. Arrival times ±6 hours.

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What Kp is needed here?

Pärnu sits at a magnetic latitude of approximately 59°N. The Kp index - a global measure of geomagnetic activity on a scale from 0 (quiet) to 9 (extreme storm), updated every 3 hours - needs to reach Kp 3–4 before the auroral oval expands far enough south to be visible from here.

At Kp 3–4, visibility is possible from Pärnu but skies need to be clear and dark. Cloud cover and light pollution remain the main obstacles even when Kp is high enough.

Plan your viewing

Best dark sky sites near Pärnu

Light pollution is the biggest obstacle after cloud cover. These sites give you the best dark northern horizon within reach.

Pärnu north beach

Get directions ↗
Bortle Class 3-4 - Rural/suburban sky Walking distance from Pärnu centre - approximately 20 minute walk from town centre

Pärnu beach runs along the north shore of the town facing north-northwest across the Gulf of Riga toward Saaremaa island. The beach is 3 km long with a wide sand strand, and in winter the resort hotels are mostly closed, leaving the beach very quiet after dark. The town lights are behind to the south and the sea horizon to the north-northwest is substantially darker than looking inland. Bortle Class 3-4 from the beach depending on how far west you walk from the town illumination zone, and the position is accessible on foot from the centre across the pedestrian bridge.

Kihnu island

Get directions ↗
Bortle Class 3 - Rural sky Ferry from Pärnu harbour - approximately 1 hour crossing

Kihnu is a small Baltic island of 16 sq km with a population of around 600, listed as UNESCO Intangible Cultural Heritage for its living island culture. The island is flat with no buildings above two storeys and minimal artificial lighting, facing open Gulf of Riga water in all directions. The ferry departs from Pärnu harbour and takes approximately 55-70 minutes; the island has a guest house and further accommodation options, and the north and west shores give the darkest positions facing open water. Bortle Class 3 throughout, making Kihnu the most rewarding dark sky position accessible from Pärnu if you plan ahead for a minimum overnight stay.

Nigula Nature Reserve

Get directions ↗
Bortle Class 3 - Rural sky 35 km from Pärnu - approximately 35 minute drive via Route 7

Nigula is a raised bog and surrounding forest reserve in Pärnu County, one of Estonia's oldest protected nature areas, designated in 1957. The bog surface is flat and open with sightlines in all directions above the sedge and shrub layer, giving an unobstructed northern horizon. An 8 km boardwalk trail crosses the bog and is accessible from the trailhead car park on Route 7; the surrounding agricultural landscape is sparsely populated with minimal light pollution in any direction. Bortle Class 3 from the bog interior - the bog is wettest in autumn, so appropriate footwear is necessary.

When to go

Best time to see the northern lights in Pärnu

Pärnu's aurora season runs from late September through to March, when nights are long enough for truly dark skies. The equinox months, September and March, bring a natural boost in geomagnetic activity, making them statistically the best of the season. Summer months bring too much twilight for aurora to be visible at this latitude.

Activity peaks around the September and March equinoxes, when Earth's magnetic field geometry is most favourable for coupling with the solar wind. Events during these two windows tend to produce the strongest displays of the year for observers at Pärnu's latitude.

April through August brings persistent astronomical twilight that washes out aurora completely. Even strong events (Kp 6+) remain invisible during this period because the sky never gets dark enough.

Up to 8 locations

Pärnu

Estonia

Good chance
Kp 6 need Kp 3-4
Checking darkness…
Tallinn

Estonia

Good chance
Kp 6 need Kp 3-4
Checking darkness…
Saaremaa

Estonia

Good chance
Kp 6 need Kp 3-4
Checking darkness…
The odds

How often does the aurora appear in Pärnu?

Average nights per month the Kp reached Pärnu's threshold of 3+, from 15 years of geomagnetic data (2010–2024).

10.2Jan
11.2Feb
13.6Mar
11.2Apr
0May
0Jun
0Jul
6.7Aug
13.2Sep
12.8Oct
10.3Nov
9.3Dec

Counts the Kp 3+ threshold only - cloud cover and local darkness are not included.
Kp data: GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, CC BY 4.0

Make it happen

Plan your trip to Pärnu

Based on 15 years of geomagnetic data (2010–2024)

1st
March
13.6
avg aurora nights
Stay 3+ nights for 80% chance
2nd
September
13.2
avg aurora nights
Stay 3+ nights for 80% chance
3rd
October
12.8
avg aurora nights
Stay 4+ nights for 80% chance

Best window

The September to November window averages 36 aurora nights - the strongest consecutive stretch of the year.

How long to stay

For your best chance in March, plan at least 3 nights.

From the community

Aurora photographs from Pärnu

Real photos sourced from Wikimedia Commons.

Aurora over PärnuAurora over Pärnu
Aurora over PärnuAurora over Pärnu
Aurora over PärnuAurora over Pärnu
Aurora over PärnuAurora over Pärnu
Questions

Common questions about aurora in Pärnu

What Kp is needed for aurora in Pärnu?
The Kp index is a global measure of geomagnetic activity on a scale from 0 (quiet) to 9 (extreme storm), updated every 3 hours. Pärnu at 59°N magnetic latitude - comparable to Helsinki and Bergen in Norway - needs Kp 3-4 for aurora from the coastal dark sites. This is a relatively low threshold by European standards: Kp 3-4 events occur on average 20-30 times per year globally during solar maximum, making Pärnu a realistic aurora destination during an active solar period.
How does Pärnu compare to Tallinn for aurora?
Both cities sit at approximately 59°N magnetic latitude and share the same Kp 3-4 threshold. The difference is position: Pärnu faces northwest across the Gulf of Riga with an open sea horizon, while Tallinn faces north across the Gulf of Finland. Pärnu's north beach gives direct sea access on foot from the town centre - more immediate than Tallinn, which requires a drive to the Paldiski Peninsula or Lahemaa for equivalent dark sky. Pärnu's resort infrastructure also means cheaper accommodation outside summer.
Is Kihnu island worth visiting for aurora?
Kihnu's combination of genuine dark sky, flat terrain, and 360-degree water horizon makes it an excellent aurora position if you plan ahead. The island has limited accommodation, so booking in advance is necessary. The ferry timetable requires a minimum overnight stay. The island's low population and absence of any significant light source means aurora detectable at Kp 3 from the mainland is equally visible here - but with a cleaner horizon in all directions. The cultural character of the island adds context to the visit.
What is the Gulf of Riga like for aurora watching?
The Gulf of Riga is an enclosed sea roughly 150 km wide, surrounded by Estonia's west coast, Latvia to the south, and the islands of Saaremaa and Hiiumaa to the west. For aurora watching, the Gulf provides a flat water horizon in the northerly direction from Pärnu, which is the key viewing direction. On calm nights the water surface reflects any aurora overhead, extending the visible band below the horizon. The Gulf's enclosed nature means wave action is lower than open Baltic coasts, giving better reflection conditions.
When is the best time for aurora in Pärnu?
September to April. Pärnu's position on the Gulf of Riga gives it a Baltic maritime climate - cold winters with moderate cloud cover. The equinox months of September and March are geomagnetically the most active and give a good balance of darkness and tolerable temperatures for outdoor watching. In summer (June and July) it barely gets dark at 59°N, making aurora observation impossible. The practical season opens around mid-September.
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